The Research

Every projection on MeOnGLP is grounded in peer-reviewed clinical trial data. Below are the key studies we reference — all published in top-tier medical journals, all publicly accessible. We encourage you to read them.

How We Use This Data

When you enter your height, weight, age, and sex, we calculate your BMI and map you to the most relevant clinical cohort. Our projection tiers are:

BMI 18.5–24.93–7% projected lossBased on lower-dose protocol extrapolations
BMI 25–29.912–17% projected lossBased on STEP 1 subgroup analyses
BMI 30–34.915–21% projected lossBased on STEP 1 & STEP 3 primary endpoints
BMI 35+18–24% projected lossBased on higher-BMI subgroups in STEP trials & SURMOUNT-1

We apply age adjustments for adults 55+ (reducing projections by 1–2 percentage points), consistent with observed age-related differences in trial subgroup analyses. Waist circumference reduction is estimated at ~1 inch per 8 lbs lost, derived from the waist-to-weight-loss ratios reported in STEP 1.

Published Studies

STEP 1

Once-Weekly Semaglutide in Adults with Overweight or Obesity

New England Journal of Medicine · 2021 · n=1,961 adults with BMI ≥30 (or ≥27 with comorbidities)
Wilding JPH, Batterham RL, Calanna S, et al.

Participants receiving semaglutide 2.4mg lost an average of 14.9% of body weight over 68 weeks, compared to 2.4% with placebo. 86.4% of participants achieved ≥5% weight loss.

DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2032183
STEP 2

Semaglutide 2.4mg for Weight Management in Adults with Overweight/Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes

The Lancet · 2021 · n=1,210 adults with type 2 diabetes and BMI ≥27
Davies M, Færch L, Jeppesen OK, et al.

In adults with type 2 diabetes, semaglutide 2.4mg produced 9.6% weight loss over 68 weeks versus 3.4% with placebo. HbA1c also improved significantly.

DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2101653
STEP 3

Semaglutide 2.4mg with Intensive Behavioral Therapy

JAMA · 2021 · n=611 adults with BMI ≥30 (or ≥27 with comorbidities)
Wadden TA, Bailey TS, Billings LK, et al.

Combined with intensive behavioral therapy (reduced-calorie diet + exercise counseling), semaglutide 2.4mg produced 16.0% weight loss at 68 weeks versus 5.7% with placebo — the highest weight loss observed in the STEP program.

DOI: 10.1001/jama.2021.1831
STEP 4

Continued Treatment vs Withdrawal of Semaglutide

JAMA · 2021 · n=902 adults
Rubino D, Abrahamsson N, Davies M, et al.

After 20 weeks of semaglutide, those who continued for another 48 weeks lost an additional 7.9% of body weight, while those switched to placebo regained 6.9% — demonstrating the importance of sustained treatment.

DOI: 10.1001/jama.2021.3224
STEP 5

Two-Year Effects of Semaglutide on Body Weight

Nature Medicine · 2022 · n=304 adults
Garvey WT, Batterham RL, Bhatt DL, et al.

Over 104 weeks (2 years), semaglutide 2.4mg produced sustained weight loss of 15.2% versus 2.6% with placebo, with maintained improvements in cardiometabolic risk factors.

DOI: 10.1038/s41591-022-02026-4
SELECT

Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Obesity without Diabetes

New England Journal of Medicine · 2023 · n=17,604 adults
Lincoff AM, Brown-Frandsen K, Colhoun HM, et al.

Semaglutide 2.4mg reduced major adverse cardiovascular events by 20% in adults with obesity and established cardiovascular disease — the first trial to show a GLP-1 reduces heart attacks and strokes independent of diabetes status.

DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2307563
SURMOUNT-1

Tirzepatide for Weight Management in Obesity

New England Journal of Medicine · 2022 · n=2,539 adults with BMI ≥30 (or ≥27 with comorbidities)
Jastreboff AM, Aronne LJ, Ahmad NN, et al.

Tirzepatide (a dual GIP/GLP-1 agonist) produced weight loss of 15.0% (5mg), 19.5% (10mg), and 20.9% (15mg) over 72 weeks — the largest weight reductions ever observed with a pharmaceutical intervention.

DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2206038

Important Limitations

Clinical trial participants receive structured medical supervision, dietary counseling, and regular follow-ups that most real-world patients do not. Real-world weight loss with GLP-1 medications may be lower than trial results. Factors including genetics, diet, physical activity, medication adherence, and concurrent health conditions all influence individual outcomes.

MeOnGLP projections represent the midpoint of the observed clinical range for your BMI tier — not a guarantee, not a ceiling, and not a floor. They are meant to be directionally informative, not clinically precise.